I hate to say it, but Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer has to go. And in light of the delicate nature of today’s minority government situation, he needs to depart the political scene very soon.
Yes, the Conservatives boosted their seat total, bested Justin Trudeau in the popular vote and reduced the federal Liberals to a minority government. But the party faithful had their minds and hearts set on a majority Conservative government.
In fact, there should be little doubt that the 2019 federal election was well within the party’s grasp from the outset. And given the many problems that plagued the Trudeau-led Liberals, the Grits were clearly ripe for the picking.
Indeed, the Conservatives may not have such a favourable alignment of the electoral stars the next time around. They certainly won’t be able to take advantage of the SNC-Lavalin scandal, the disturbing blackface and brownface photos or even the TMX pipeline issue.
The fact of the matter is that the Scheer-led Conservatives did not make a dent in the Liberal fortress in Toronto and the 905 area code region, garnered only a few more seats in British Columbia and did not make the expected gains in Atlantic Canada. Moreover, the party — even though it had recruited a large number of so-called “star candidates”— barely held on to their 10 seats in Quebec.
You have to believe that there are people within the party who are now asking themselves some very tough questions about Scheer’s political shelf life. Re-elected Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu, who represents the southern Ontario riding of Sarnia-Lambton, put her finger on it: “If you can’t beat Justin Trudeau with those things so up front, I think that’s not great. I think we need to ask ourselves, 'What happened in Ontario? Why did we not win the number of seats we wanted to win in the Atlantic provinces?’”
So, why didn’t the Conservatives win enough seats to form a government? And how did they squander this golden opportunity to displace the hapless Trudeau Liberals?
After all is said and done, you have to come back to the leadership of Andrew Scheer. Instead of putting some water in his wine and moderating his campaign platform, especially on the topic of climate change mitigation and perhaps gun control, the Conservatives went all-in in courting their core 30 per cent base of supporters. The problem with that strategy is that you can’t form a national government in Canada without expanding your political tent to include soft Liberal voters.
An argument could also be made — though I’m sure that many will disagree — that it was a strategic mistake for Scheer to banish Ontario Premier Doug Ford to the political isolation ward. Whatever you think of Ford’s political acumen, the “Ford Nation” is still a force to contend with in southern Ontario. It seems to me that the Conservatives, even with Ford’s help (instead of Alberta’s Jason Kenney), certainly couldn’t have done any worse than they did in the Greater Toronto Area seat bonanza.
Let’s be honest, though: Scheer didn’t exactly run a smooth and gaffe-free election campaign. In many ways, it didn’t excite or galvanize Canadians around his leadership. More importantly, there were serious problems around Scheer’s job résumé and U.S. citizenship, his inability to come to grips with the issues of same-sex marriage and abortion rights and his penchant for uttering flat-out lies about the Liberal and NDP policy platforms.
The Canadian electorate, in the end, did not feel overly comfortable voting for Scheer. They saw him more as “Harper-lite,” were put off by his often dull and sometimes aggressive campaign style and they just didn’t trust him with the keys to the Prime Minister’s Office. And once these public perceptions have set in, it is almost impossible to change them (recall one-time Liberal leader Stéphane Dion).
The hard truth of the 2019 campaign was that the more Canadians got to know Andrew Scheer, the less they seemed to like him. And that, without question, is a recipe for electoral disaster going forward for the Conservatives.
In April 2020, and if he isn’t already gone by then, Scheer will face an automatic review of his leadership at the party’s national general meeting in Toronto. If the Conservative Party brass is paying attention, they will make sure that a new party leadership selection process is secured.
The fundamental political reality is that a Conservative Party led by Scheer can’t win the next federal election in two years or so. He’s damaged goods, I’m afraid. So keep your eyes open for conservative-minded politicians like Peter MacKay, Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall to eventually make their moves.
Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.
